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The mayor鈥檚 race in Washington, D.C., technically won鈥檛 be settled until this fall. But on Tuesday night, the winner of the Democratic primary will assume presumptive leadership over a school system educating nearly 100,000 students.

That expectation is a function of sheer partisanship: Over 90% of local voters , opening a wide path for the party鈥檚 nominee to march to City Hall in November. But the road ahead for public education is much less certain. After nearly two decades of outstanding growth in both student enrollment and academic outcomes, as well as 12 years of leadership from a largely consensus-minded incumbent, the next mayor will need to provide answers to a range of new problems afflicting K鈥�12 schools.

The District鈥檚 long economic expansion of the 2000s and 2010s, which drew into its orbit, finally stalled in the face of federal job cuts and a pandemic-fueled flight from the urban core. Combined with a decline in birth rates, the slump has caused the student rolls to go negative for the first time in recent memory 鈥� just as on the horizon. Even a promising recovery from post-COVID learning loss is imperiled by a collapse in daily attendance, with missing one-tenth of the school year or more.

The two leading candidates to succeed Mayor Muriel Bowser are widely seen as ideological opposites. Attorney Kenyan McDuffie has courted business groups with a moderate pitch to bring down crime and avoid overextending city finances. Janeese Lewis George, a city councilor and self-described democratic socialist, won over the Left with a huge proposal to offer subsidized to all Washington families.

The broader clash in visions 鈥� playing out in the national Democratic Party 鈥� is overshadowing a K鈥�12 debate that could be more consequential in the long run. signal continuity with foundational policies enacted in the hard-charging reform period of the 2000s, including direct mayoral control over schools and holding teachers and schools accountable for student performance. Lewis George has issued a subtle challenge to that settlement, voicing a desire to grant education leaders more independence from the mayor鈥檚 office and scrap a framework.

The progressive favorite鈥檚 eagerness to break from the status quo secured the support of the Washington Teachers Union, which has long sought to de-emphasize teacher quality metrics and win more bargaining latitude for its members. WTU President Laura Fuchs, a frequent critic of the leadership of both District of Columbia Public Schools and D.C. charter schools, said teachers 鈥渨orked very hard to minimize the harm鈥� imposed by top-down reforms. Under Lewis George, she argued, educators would enjoy much better relations with city leaders.

鈥淲e do believe we will have a much friendlier and more listening ear鈥� with Lewis George in power, Fuchs said, while adding that she did not believe the candidate would necessarily supply every item on the union鈥檚 wish list. 鈥淲hat Janeese represents, in so many ways, is that she takes us seriously and believes that we are partners.鈥�

Neither of the two contenders could be reached for comment for this article. But the differences between them highlight a fissure in their party that has widened since the Obama-era peak of ambitious experimentation in public schools. Washington has seen some of the in student achievement of any American school district in this century, with student test scores climbing persistently during a time when they were stagnant almost everywhere else. But national Democrats have made little hay about the generational gains, which have attracted fewer boosters and national headlines than similar turnarounds in red states. 

Thomas Toch, director of Georgetown University鈥檚 FutureEd research institute and a defender of the District鈥檚 model of educational improvement, called the city鈥檚 approach 鈥渁 beacon nationally鈥� and warned against a change in direction.

鈥淚t is one of the most important reform success stories in the country, in part because the city has continued to do well by its students for a long time,鈥� Toch said. 鈥淭he leaders have sustained the reforms, and the reforms continue to make a difference for students.鈥�

Michelle Rhee鈥檚 legacy

When Toch and others refer to 鈥渢he reforms,鈥� they are largely describing a package of policies that began in 2007, when Mayor Adrian Fenty overhauled school governance in what was then one of the lowest-performing urban districts in the country.

Virtually overnight, the governance of DCPS was transferred to Fenty himself, who also wielded substantial influence over a rapidly growing charter school sector. His hand-picked schools chancellor, Michelle Rhee, soon rolled out a new evaluation system known as IMPACT, which ranked teachers based on their students鈥� test scores; top performers received hefty raises, while .

The groundswell seemed to crest in November 2008, with Rhee posing for in Time magazine and president-elect Barack Obama embracing a similar suite of K鈥�12 recommendations in his national agenda. But Washingtonians grew weary of the pace of change, including the that received failing grades, and turned the mayor out of office.

But his successor, a reform critic who challenged Fenty , surprised many by opting away from a course correction. After another 鈥� particularly alienating to some parents in the wake of a 鈥� voters again soured on their leadership, selecting Muriel Bowser as the city鈥檚 first female mayor and reelecting her twice.

Part of Bowser鈥檚 success may lie in the public鈥檚 in local schools. While the tumult over the initial reforms quickly stirred anger, subsequent data on student learning has proven highly favorable.

Findings from the National Assessment of Educational Progress (a federal exam commonly known as the Nation鈥檚 Report Card) show that D.C. fourth and eighth graders comparable to virtually any other major city between 2003 and 2019. A 2021 by the research group Mathematica estimated that Washington鈥檚 ascent through the 2010s was comparable to the massive leap made by New Orleans schools in the wake of the district鈥檚 post-Katrina restructuring.

While the pandemic pushed achievement downward for a time, local testing from the past few years shows that year-over-year academic progress since the COVID nadir preceding the public health emergency. The Education Scorecard, a data project led by scholars at Dartmouth, Harvard, and Stanford, that DCPS schools saw the fastest recovery of those in any city between 2022 and 2025.

Chelsea Coffin, and education policy specialist for the D.C. Policy Center, called the latest round of state assessments 鈥渁 very good sign for D.C. students.鈥�

鈥淲hat we saw last school year were really large gains 鈥� even compared to what D.C. had been posting pre-pandemic 鈥� in both math and English, across almost all wards and most major subgroups,鈥� Coffin said. 鈥淒.C. has a long way to go in terms of all students being on grade-level, but this new forward momentum is really exciting.鈥�

David Grosso, a former city councilor who chaired the body鈥檚 education committee between 2015 and 2020, said in an interview that the stream of good news has mostly quieted the consternation that greeted Fenty and Rhee鈥檚 dramatic shakeup.

At the time of his election, Grosso recalled, 鈥減eople were clamoring for success right off the bat. After five years of reform, they were asking, ‘Why aren’t our schools all better?’ The challenge was to explain to people that when you have 100 years of bad schools, you can’t turn it around in five years.鈥�

Teacher evaluations under fire

But dissatisfaction has lingered among detractors of the reform regime, none more energetic than the Washington Teachers Union. 

Pointing to the District鈥檚 , which have exceeded 20 percent in some years, the WTU鈥檚 leaders lay the blame with IMPACT. Fuchs dismissed the evaluation system as 鈥渁 tool of control,鈥� saying that it mandated an overreliance on testing and made teachers fear for their livelihoods. 

鈥淎ny time they find the union finding a quote-unquote ‘loophole,’ so people could keep their jobs, they cut it off,鈥� Fuchs remarked. 鈥淎nything that gives teachers a little bit of power or wiggle room, they cut it off.鈥�

Indeed, refinements to IMPACT have been ongoing since its debut. led to over 20 instructors being ranked lower than they deserved in 2013, denying bonus payments to several and resulting in one mistaken termination. More recently, DCPS officials intended, in part, to combat perceptions that evaluations . 

Echoing some of these complaints, Lewis George has declared that she will end IMPACT if elected. In circulated by WTU, she claimed the system 鈥渦ndermines educators鈥� expertise and students鈥� joy of learning.鈥� While committing to retain mayoral control, she has also suggested that she will transform Washington鈥檚 office of the superintendent into an independent agency 鈥� an idea that could lead to less direct oversight over student data and standards, .

Ongoing resistance from the union and its allies may help to illustrate the somewhat muted response to D.C.鈥檚 positive trajectory. While states like Mississippi and Louisiana have emerged as widely cited examples of educational success in deeply conservative locales, Democrats are less likely to harp on the consistent growth attained in the single bluest jurisdiction in the country. Toch said the critiques of progressives and unionized workers now make the story an awkward fit with the party鈥檚 national profile.

Still, he added, it would be a profound mistake to walk away from teacher ratings, even if IMPACT could potentially benefit from tweaks. The data organized through the rubric provided the 鈥渇oundation鈥� for many other workforce improvements realized in recent years, including the opening of new leadership opportunities for teachers receiving good ratings.

鈥淚t’s discouraging to hear someone even consider abandoning it,鈥� Toch said. 鈥淗ow would you do pay-for-performance? How would you create a career ladder if you couldn’t distinguish between good teachers and bad teachers? That’s the problem we had in the District in the past, and it still exists in much of the country.鈥�

Whether Lewis George or McDuffie ultimately claims the Democratic nomination, the next mayor will have to navigate structural challenges that go beyond old battles around reform. The city faces mounting budgetary shortfalls that threaten its ability to spend at the level to which both charter and district schools have become accustomed.

Funding for school renovations and new academic programs will likely need to wait until the District鈥檚 financial picture adapts to a post-COVID, post-Trump reality in which both businesses and the federal government have shrunk their local presence. Even the pay incentives provided through IMPACT add to the fiscal pressure.

Bisi Oydele is the CEO of Education Forward D.C., a reform-friendly advocacy group. While stressing the need to pursue retrenchment equally, among both DCPS and charter providers, he acknowledged that educators and families might have to prepare for leaner times.

鈥淵ou can track the CFO revenue projections, and they’re not great,鈥� Oyedele said. 鈥淒.C. spends about $2 billion on education per year, and that is obviously tied to revenues and economic forecasts.鈥�

Grosso also noted the long set of issues that the mayor and city council will confront through the end of the decade, including the likely need for schools to tighten their belts and the immediate task of finding a replacement for outgoing Chancellor Lewis Ferebee, who announced his resignation last month. 

Amid that flurry of contingencies, he cautioned policymakers against pursuing 鈥渞eform for reform鈥檚 sake.鈥� While he had previously pursued some major policy changes through the Council 鈥� including one resembling Lewis George鈥檚 notion of making the superintendency more autonomous 鈥� such moves needed to be carefully studied before action was taken, he concluded.

鈥淚f I didn’t learn anything else in all the years I was making education policy, at least I learned this: If you make massive changes鈥� and you don’t have a real understanding of what the outcome will be, then you shouldn’t make the change.鈥�

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